Monday, November 24, 2008
Investing in Forex
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Saturday, March 1, 2008
Forex Trading Systems - Scientific Theories for Predicting Price
There are numerous theories that are said to be scientific and three of the most common are Fibonacci, Elliot Wave and WD Gann. They all claim to be able to predict forex prices in advance but how successful are they?
The problem with these theories is they are all flawed and none of the above made any profits with the theories and they developed them! - So why don't they work?
Because while human nature is constant, it's not predictable with scientific accuracy.
Humans are not creatures of logic - but creatures of emotion and that means there is no formula that can be applied to this vast, diverse group that will work.
This is actually pretty obvious as if there were a scientific theory of market movement that worked all the time, we would all know the price in advance and there would be no market as of course we would all know the price in advance!
Prices actually move because we are unpredictable and this is the basis of any free market.
A BETTER WAY TO MAKE FOREX PROFITS
If you try and predict forex prices ( not just with a scientific theory) you are destined to lose anyway because prediction is really another word for hoping and guessing and that won't get you very far in life and especially not in forex trading!
You can't predict so don't even try, as your predictions will end up being as accurate as your horoscope.
A better way to trade is to hit high odds set ups, in fact - it's the only way to trade.
You are playing a game of odds not certainties - but that doesn't mean you can't make big profits, you can and the rewards are enormous.
Keep in mind the following fact when you trade forex:
All prices are pushed to far up or down by human emotion and then return to fair value. If you can spot and act on these price spikes, you can make huge profits and there easy to spot on a forex chart. You simply wait until the price spikes and then look for a waning of momentum and hit your trading signal - in the opposite direction.
This happens time and time again in forex markets (or any market for that matter), these price spikes fade and if you can catch them you have great profit potential with low risk.
Once a trend does develop you trade with it - but there are always price spikes along the way (within trends) for swing trading or (at the end of trends) for long term trend followers.
Forex trading has not changed over the years.
Despite the vast amount of progress we have made in science in other areas of life forex trading remains an odds game where the appliance of science won't help you - but simply trading the odds will and can lead you to currency trading success.
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Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Currency Trading Signals - The Easy Way to Forex Profits
The first point to keep in mind is - there are a lot of people who will try and sell you currency trading signals and their not traders, their simply marketing organizations and have no trading experience.
To avoid these people and to find out if a forex signal trading service or forex trading system can generate trades that are likely to make you money, look for the disclaimer below - if a vendor uses it or similar one, don't buy the system.
Here it is read it carefully:
"cftc rule 4.41 - hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under-or-over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown".
The one above is a standard CFTC one and it effectively allows anyone to make up a track record in hindsight - knowing the closing prices.
Anyone can do that, even a child - but forex trading is not so simple, we have to trade going forward.
Look for real time track records and get verification.
Even if you are lucky enough to find a forex signal trading service that has a real time track record - you must understand the logic it is based on, otherwise you won't be able to follow the signals with discipline.
If you don't have confidence in the logic and the discipline to follow the signals through losing periods (and you will have them) you don't have a system!
The traders who buy currency trading signal services, are normally traders who are greedy and looking for a fast buck - or traders who are simply naïve. They end up disappointed and lose their money, because there is no easy money to be made in forex markets.
Of course, you wouldn't expect there to be, with the profits to be made.
THE BEST WAY...
To enjoy currency trading success is to generate your own currency trading signals, by learning forex trading and building your own system which you can be confident in and you can apply with discipline.
While this may sound daunting - its not and you can do it in a couple of weeks, if you work smart and get the right forex education.
Currency trading success is based upon understanding confidence and discipline and the best and most profitable path is to generate your currency trading signals.
If you have the desire to succeed and a willingness to learn you can do it.
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Thursday, January 3, 2008
Forex Trading - 3 Points Key Points for Novice Traders To Understand
1. Do You like Responsibility?
It's a fact that most traders fail because they don't - they think they can buy an e-book for $100 follow a simulated track record, do no work and get rich well, if you are one of these people you will lose and lose quickly.
Not everyone likes responsibility and there is nothing wrong with that - but if you don't the forex market is not for you.
Forex trading places unique demands upon you not only do you need a sound logical system, you also need to have confidence in it and the discipline to follow it and realize that success rests on you and you alone.
The only person who can make you rich or wealthy is you - no one else is going to make you rich.
The good news is if you like the idea of taking charge of your own destiny and having the opportunity to make a life changing income, then forex can give you that - if you do your homework.
2. Are You a Risk Taker?
You hear a lot about forex trading does not need to be risky - but it is by definition!
If you don't like the idea of taking calculated risks, then you will not make a good forex trader. Successful forex traders know that risk goes with reward and the bigger the risk you take the more you make. This doesn't mean you act in a rash manner - but you know that the bigger the risk the bigger the potential gain.
3. Do you have a cool head?
Trading forex markets is 20% method and 80% attitude - you need discipline and this is hard to achieve for most people. If you don't like acting on your own and against the crowd and your emotional - again don't trade forex it requires tremendous discipline to succeed.
THE REAL KEY TO FOREX SUCCESS
If you have all of the above then you could become a good forex trader and enjoy forex trading success - but now you have to understand the key point you need to make it into the elite 5% of winners
You need to know your trading edge and why it will help you win.
Most traders if you ask them don't know what their trading edge is and the bad news is if you don't know what it is - You don't have one and you are going to lose.
A trading edge is something in your forex trading strategy has that enables you to win, while 95% of traders lose.
It's specific to you; you have confidence in it and can trade your edge with discipline.
How do you get a trading edge?
You work it out for yourself by working smart - you can take it from others but you must understand it and have confidence in it - that then is your edge.
Going back to point 1 you have to take responsibility for developing it yourself.
As you need to follow it you need to have confidence in it - this comes from understanding and gives you the discipline to apply it.
With me so far?
Good - then you have the opportunity (if you work smart) to get a trading edge and apply it on one of the world's most exciting businesses for profits and end up in the minority of winners and have the opportunity to earn a life changing income.
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Friday, December 28, 2007
Forex Trading - Achieving The Mindset of the Millionaire Traders
The minority of traders that make really big gains all make their money with different methods - but they all have a certain trait that set them apart.
Let's take a look at them.
Success comes from Within
If you think you can follow someone else and be successful your wrong - success comes from within and to be successful you need to accept responsibility for your destiny. You need to have a desire to succeed and a willingness to work smart to get the knowledge you need.
Now you need to understand this key equation:
Understanding = Confidence = Discipline
Most traders don't understand that - if you try and follow the herd, the news, a guru or mentor you will never have the inner belief in the trades. If you understand what you are doing, you will have confidence - and confidence is required to apply your system with discipline through losing periods.
Keep in mind this simple equation!
Simple Forex Trading Method + Applied with discipline = Forex success
If you don't have the confidence to apply your method with discipline, you have no system at all.
There are no secrets to forex trading that many people would have you believe - ALL The knowledge you need is available for you to learn but you need to learn the RIGHT knowledge and then apply it with confidence and discipline.
Most forex traders then that discipline is easy to acquire but it's not - as you are confronted with total responsibility for your actions.
You have to confront an all powerful being (the market) and only you can be wrong and it's all always right. You have to have the ability to create your own rules and have the discipline to apply them.
In 1983 legendary Richard Dennis taught a group of people who had never traded before a system in just 14 days and sent them off to trade.
The result?
They made over $100 million dollars in four years.
These traders were all taught the same system - but some scored far bigger gains than others and this is purely mindset as they had all been taught the same method.
You can learn forex trading and you can adopt the mindset of the millionaire traders but you need to do your homework, gain the right knowledge, to instill confidence and discipline will follow.
The big difference between the losing majority and the elite traders is a difference of mindset.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2007
forex Trading - The BIG Disadvantages Of This Investment Medium
You will here about the advantages of currency trading and their well known but there NOT advantages unless - you trade currencies correctly. They can just as easily be disadvantages and that's what happens to most traders!
Here are the perceived advantages and how they cause traders to lose.
1. Currencies can be leveraged
Many brokers will now give up to 400:1 in leverage and while this allows you to increase gains - it's a double edged sword and can cause losses. Most traders have no idea of risk control over leverage themselves and lose.
Poor risk control is probably the major reasons traders get wiped out, they simply cant handle leverage and have no idea about standard deviation of price.
2. Currencies are volatile
Therefore profit opportunities present themselves everyday.
The high odds trades don't though and most traders simply trade low odds trades.
They trade far to much and end up losing furthermore, the volatility of currency trading has led many traders to try day trading which is simply dumb. There is no way you can get the odds on your side in day trading and they lose all their money.
In forex trading you don't get paid for trading often you get paid for being right and that's it.
3. Currencies trend
Yes they do - but the problem is of course you have to lock into and hold these trends and execute your trades at the right time. This looks easy going back on the charts but is much harder going forward!
The trends are easy in hindsight but catching the big long term trends causes emotional problems for most traders.
Why?
Because they cant hold a trend.
The reason for this is they get a profit and get so excited they want to take it before it gets away. The more the market moves in their favour the more excited they get. Then volatility starts to eat into their open equity and they snatch a marginal profit.
If of course they hung on they could have had a huge profit but mentally they couldn't cope with volatility.
As you can see an advantage is not an advantage until you turn it into one.
An advantage for some is a disadvantage for others and in the case of currency trading most traders can't make the above advantages work for them.
Of course with the right education and attitude you can but in today's world of experts and e-books promising traders riches beyond their dreams (all for a few hundred dollars) traders plunge in and burn their equity.
If you want to win keep in mind:
- Don't over leverage and execute proper risk control.
- Trade in frequently to catch the high odds set ups.
- Study volatility and standard deviation of price. - If you are trend following have the discipline to follow them.
The currency markets need to be treated with respect - that means proper forex education and an understanding of how and why they work and how to put the advantages in your favour.
The currency markets do NOT have advantages unless you make them advantages and they start off as disadvantages.
If you understand the above, you will realise what you need to do and if you do it get the right forex education and harness the advantages of currency trading.
If you do you could make a lot of money and enjoy currency trading success.
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Thursday, November 8, 2007
The Truth about the Trading Forex
The Forex market is all about trading money or currencies worldwide. Almost all countries around the world are involved in the forex trading market, where money is bought and sold, based on the value of that currency at the time. As some currencies do not have a high value, it is not going to be traded heavily, as the currency's value increases, additional brokers and bankers will decide to invest in that market.
Forex trading takes place daily, where more than two trillion dollars are traded every day - that is an enormous amount of money. Have you ever thought about how many millions it takes to produce total of a trillion dollars and then consider that this is done on a daily basis.
The currencies that are traded on the forex markets from every country around the world. Every currency has it own symbol that will signify that country and the currency that is being traded. For example, the Japanese yen is the JPY and the United Stated dollar is USD. The British pound is the GBP and the Euro is the EUR. Most all trades are done through a broker. Most brokers require you to pay some type of fee or commision, so you want to be sure about the trade you are making before making too many trades which are going to involve many fees.
Trades between markets and countries happen every day. Most of the heavy trading occurs between the Euro and the US dollar, and then the US dollar and the Japanese yen, and then of the other most often seen trades is between the British pound and the US dollar. The trades happen all day and all night As one country opens trading for the day another is closing. The time zones across the world affect how the trading takes place and when the markets are open.
If you intend to get involved in the trading Forex, do your homework. While trading forex can be profitable it does require mental discipline and a solid plan.
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Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Forex Day Trading - The Illusion of Profit the Reality Losses
More novice traders try forex day trading than any other method and while you will hear people telling you it makes money and see gurus selling courses, the fact is you never see a real track record of profits - Why? Because - it doesn't work.
The Illusion
Forex day trading doesn't work in the real world - because all daily volatility is random.
The net result is that support and resistance levels (and any technical tool you try) have no chance of working, therefore you have no chance of winning.
Millions of traders, trade trillions of dollars and to say that you can tell what this huge mass all driven by different motivations, experience and emotion will do in a few hours is laughable.
The illusion day trading makes money is just that - an illusion.
Traders back test data and bend their systems to make them fit the data.
Of course, when these systems are traded the data never replicates itself EXACTLY the same way again and they lose.
This is known as "curve fitting" i.e. bending the system to fit the data.
One trader I know likened this to shooting at a barn door and then afterwards drawing a circle around everyone, to show it as a bulls-eye.
If we all knew tomorrow's price today, we would all be rich - shame it's not that easy in forex trading - we have to trade not knowing the prices!
Vendors feed on this naivety and greed, by making up track records based upon hypothetical simulations done knowing the closing data, put a disclaimer on and forex traders think it will work in the real world.
They don't - ask for a real time track record and you simply won't get one.
The vendor makes a guaranteed profit from selling the myth and the trader gets the reality of a loss.
The Reality Is..
If you can't trade with the odds in your favour, you're going to lose and we have already told you why.
Another reality is that forex trading involves risk.
Day traders think their restricting risk and will have small losses - sure they do but over time they get a lot of them!
Of course one of the well known phrases of trading is "cut your losses and let your profits run" this totally alien to forex day traders - what do they do when they get a profit?
They snatch it!
So they have lots of small losses and a few marginal profits (even day traders get lucky ) and the result is the demise of their account equity - PERIOD.
If you want to win at forex trading - forget forex day trading and either try forex swing trading or long term trend following, where support and resistance levels can be used to generate high odds trades.
Today, most traders are looking for an easy buck and forex trading is not easy, they buy day trading systems with the illusion of low risk, regular profits and that's all it is an illusion.
The reality is a wipe out of equity.
Avoid forex day trading, if you want to win at FX Trading.
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Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Forex Swing Trading - The Best Method for Novice Traders
Forex swing trading is easy to learn and apply and is an ideal method for novice traders to make money with - let's look at the advantages.
Essentially you have 3 time frames you can target trends in and they are:
Forex day trading, swing trading and long term trend following and forex swing trading is the easiest for novice traders - so lets compare these 3 methods and see why.
1. Day Trading
More novice traders try this method than any other - but it doesn't work at all!
All short term volatility is random, you can't get the odds on your side and you can't win - PERIOD.
For those of you who are still are thinking about it - try and find a track record that has made real profits (not simulated or hypothetical) and you won't find one.
It's a loser's game, so don't try it.
2. Forex Trend Following
This will give you the best profit potential if you can lock into the long term trends and hold them.
This looks a lot easier than it really is and requires tremendous discipline and discipline is a hard skill to learn.
1. You need to be patient.
You need to wait for the right opportunities and it requires discipline, to sit for weeks or months on end waiting for them.
Most traders want to be in trading and trend following simply only suits patient traders and most are not.
2. You need discipline to accept big gains!
This may sound easy as we all, want to make big gains but sitting on a big open gain while volatility eats into your gains is anything but and most novices snatch profits early - trend following is simply hard - sure you can learn it, but if you're a novice trader swing trading is a great place to start here's why:
3. Swing Trading
You can swing trade with just a few indicators and support and resistance and the advantages are:
1. It's very simple to learn and apply. You can learn a swing trading system in a few days. 2. There are trades at least a few times a week, so for the trader who likes action they will see it quickly.
3. Trades are right or wrong quickly and the discipline and patience needed is less in this than in trend following.
Its very easy to do - you are trading for periods of 2 days to a week or so and its easy to master the mindset to do it to and while the profits maybe smaller per trade than trend following, you can make huge profits over time if you have a logical robust system.
A Basic Swing Trading System
A swing trading system is easy to build and a good one would be based upon trading into support and resistance.
You then use momentum oscillators to confirm the trade and price direction is with your trading signal and finally, always have a target no trailing stops - hit the trades, hit target and bank them.
Stop losses in association with support and resistance are obvious and finally, incorporate breakouts in your swing trading strategy for greater profit potential.
Forex swing trading is easy to learn, easy to apply and can be profitable and fun - discover it and see for yourself.
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Forex Charting Mistakes - Make These Mistakes and You Will Lose
Forex charting and technical analysis is a great way to make money, the problem is - many traders make common mistakes and lose. Let's look at the ones you need to avoid.
1. Don't Predict
The most common mistake of all is to try and predict where prices may go.
If you get involved in prediction you are simply hoping or guessing and this is not going to work in any venture.
Don't predict - you should only act on confirmation of price changes and this always means trading with price momentum on your side - when applying your forex trading strategy.
2. Confirmation
Rather than trying to predict - confirm price momentum and the odds of success will increase dramatically.
What you need to do is see a level tested or broken and take a trading signal with price momentum ALWAYS going the way that your trading signal indicates.
Wait and see the price change FIRST on your forex chart don't simply guess!
This way you are trading with price strength on your side and the odds will be to.
If you don't know about momentum oscillators - its time to learn about them.
Good ones to start with are: the stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Average Directional Movement (ADX) - There are others but this is a good place to start.
3. Being to Complicated
Many traders think 10 indicators must be better than 2 but this is not true. The simpler your forex trading system is the better it will work
Why?
Because simple systems are more robust than complicated ones in the brutal world of trading and have fewer elements to break. All the top traders use essentially simple currency trading systems and you should to.
4. Using Time Frames That Don't Work
Forex day trading! If you try it you will lose don't make this fatal error. All volatility you see within daily time frames on forex charts is random; you can never get the odds in your favour and will never win.
Stick to longer term trend following or swing trading - when using your forex charts.
You can get the odds on your side and that's what you need to do to achieve currency trading success.
5. Using Indicators That Don't Work
There are plenty of these and most of these are routed in the belief that you can predict forex prices. Good examples are:
Elliot wave Gann angles and Fibonacci numbers. Stick with logical indicators.
Another error linked to the above is using indicators for entering trades which are lagging indicators ( such as buying dips to moving averages) or using volatility indicators to generate trading signals ( Bollinger bands) both are great indicators but you should NEVER generate trading signals from them alone.
6. Being to Subjective
Many traders like to be subjective and that fine - but make sure your entry is governed by objective indicators to execute trading signals.
If you are too subjective and start using cycles and other indicators that cause you to think to much you will lose.
Why?
Because your emotions get involved and this means staying away from news stories they really will confuse you and hurt your discipline.
7. Forex charts and volatility
Them major problem for most traders who use forex technical analysis or forex charts is they have no understanding of how to deal with volatility from a entry, or stop point of view.
We don't have enough room to cover it here but you must understand standard deviation of price and build a forex trading strategy to combat it.
Volatility is the big enemy, when it comes to forex trading and you must learn to deal with it. Get reading and make an understanding of it part of your forex education.
FINALLY!
Keep in mind when you are using forex charts and learning forex trading, that you are involved in a game of odds - NOT certainties.
Your aim is always to keep the odds on your side, protect what you have and run your profits.
If you can avoid the above mistakes, you can build a forex trading strategy to help you make big profits from your analysis of forex charts - good luck!
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Sunday, September 23, 2007
Forex Trading Mistakes
Most novice forex traders believe that to make money in forex trading they need to predict forex price direction in advance to win. The fact of the matter is if you try and predict where forex prices are going to go you are destined to lose! It's obvious really when you think about it.
If you try and predict you are hoping or guessing where prices will go and relying on hope or guessing, in any venture is not a good idea and in forex trading it leads to equity wipe out.
A Better Way To Trade - Confirm the Move.
You don't have to predict though you can act on confirmation and if you do you are not relying on hope or guessing - you are getting the odds in your favour and this can lead to long term profits.
For example, a trader sees prices dipping to support and simply enters the market - he has no idea of whether the support will hold, he is simply guessing and hoping.
Trade Like a Pro
The professional trader doesn't simply buy into support he WAITS For prices to turn up and watches price momentum to confirm the fact and when prices are moving away from support he enters.
If you wait for price momentum to confirm support has held you are trading with the odds and this is the real way the professional forex trader's trade.
No guessing or hoping they are trading the confirmation or the reality of price change to increase their chances of currency trading success.
How To Confirm Momentum.
If you know nothing about momentum indicators then you should - their an essential part of any traders Forex education.
If you want to learn forex trading correctly, you must understand and use momentum.
95% of Forex traders lose and in most instances it's because they rely on hoping and guessing and don't use the confirmation of momentum.
Great momentum indicators to look at are:
Average directional Movement ADX Relative Strength Index (RSI) - both were developed by trading legend Wells Wilder and the stochastic indicator developed by George Lane.
There are of course other momentum indicators but the above 3 are a great place to start.
When using a forex trading system you should use the following steps:
Look at tests of support and resistance and ONLY execute your trading signal - AFTER Momentum has confirmed your view.
You may well say that this will miss the bottom but you cant spot that in advance anyway (and no forex trader can) so don't even try.
Forex trading is a game of odds and if you don't get the odds in your favour you will lose.
Markets are a Game Of Odds Not a Science!
95% of traders lose, because they fail to grasp that forex trading is a game of odds and believe in scientific predictive theories like Gann, Elliot wave or following the Fibonacci number sequence - they don't work.
Keep in mind Elliot died a pauper, Gann sold courses to survive and the Fibonacci number sequence had nothing to do with finance!
Play the odds and you can win, with your forex trading strategy -try and predict without confirmation and you are guaranteed to lose - PERIOD.
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Sunday, September 2, 2007
Forex Quotes
Quote: approximate market price.
Did you know: we all live in US dollar time. Why I think so? Because the US dollar is the base pair (currency listed first is the base currency) centerpiece of the Forex market and is normally considered the “base” currency for quotes. Main rule: first currency listed first is the base currency and value of the base currency is always 1. Quote currency is the second currency in the pair.
F.e. USD/CHF : 1,2160 . USD is base currency , and CHF is quote currency. 1,2160 – rate.

If a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency and of course lower quote means the base currency is weakening. You also must know that currency pairs that do not involve the US dollar are called “cross currencies”.
Forex quotes always has 2 prices: “ask” (or “offer”) and “bid”. The “bid” is the level of price at which you can sell the base currency (and bank/broker buy it from you). The “ask” is the price at which you can buy the base currency. The spread is difference between the Bid and the Ask price.
Source: Forexfinance.blogspot.com
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